Featured Research

Fun with numbers: A deep dive on OB3 Medicaid math
One major fundamental factor for acute care providers in 2026 and 2027 is the accelerating decline of insurance coverage. In 2026, this includes the 2.6M (and growing) decline in ACA exchanges, the 3-4M moving from Silver to Bronze plans, and a 2.4M decline in Medicaid rolls from the end of 2025 through April 2026 (the TTM decline is ~5M). The latter was likely not factored into 2026 forecasts and is likely at least in part the result of the immigration. Together, these shifts leave ~8M Americans with either lost or substantially reduced coverage, even before additional attrition. For context, the uninsured count rose less than 3M in 2022-2025 combined.

A 340B deep dive and estimating exposure across our coverage
There has been a lot more noise around 340B recently, with manufacturers tightening the screws on the program, legal battles emerging across the healthcare ecosystem, and potential legislation being introduced. Ultimately, we think the program will continue to be pressured around the edges, but it will likely be done through piecemeal regulatory actions, court decisions, and potential legislative action, rather than one sweeping action. Should the program continue to be pressured, pharma is the clear winner, while health plans are a potential winner given the elimination of rebates for 340B claims, although this is less clear given the move towards rebate-free models. Losers would be non-profit hospitals and PBM/contract pharmacies.

RJ annual tax loss selling candidates worth watching, and a review of a very persistent signal in equity markets
We highlight one of the more unusual and consistent trends in the equity market in the U.S. historically, which is the seasonal soft period for equities that tends to exist from Labor Day through mid-October. This weakness is driven disproportionately by YTD “losers,” with the timing consistent with mutual fund tax loss selling behavior. Whether that is the driver or not, this trend occurs in ~2/3rds of years this century, and is meaningfully reversed in November and December, where YTD “losers” lead the seasonally strongest period of the year for equities.

Healthcare policy outlook: When fundamentals and policy sentiment diverge
The healthcare policy environment over the next six to nine months is likely to be defined by a widening gap between sector fundamentals and policy sentiment. In several subsectors, underlying operating trends may point in one direction while the politics points in another. We believe this disconnect will create a more volatile trading environment across hospitals, managed care, pharmaceuticals, medtech, and life sciences tools. In some cases, improving policy sentiment could temporarily overshadow weak fundamentals. In others, fundamentally sound businesses could come under pressure as investors react to regulatory uncertainty, campaign rhetoric, or the possibility of bipartisan policy action.

340B State of play: Piecemeal changes more likely than big legislation
340B has increasingly become a multi-front policy issue involving the administration, Congress, and the courts. Several concurrent developments have been creating different implications across hospitals, manufacturers, pharmacies, PBMs, and other intermediaries. We discuss the current state of play and our expectations for where the program is heading. 

Trump declares grid security emergency: Not a ban, but “Rip and Replace” 2.0?
The Trump administration released an executive order declaring a national emergency over foreign-produced bulk power equipment, explicitly linking grid security to data centers and the broader AI buildout, but we would caution against interpreting the action as an immediate blanket ban on Chinese or other foreign-produced grid equipment. Instead, the order establishes a new framework for the Department of Energy (DOE) to screen, license, condition, or prohibit future transactions involving foreign-produced equipment tied to designated “Covered Foreign Entities” when DOE determines that the equipment creates an unacceptable national security, cybersecurity, or supply chain risk. 

Resuming coverage of healthcare REITs
We are re-launching coverage of healthcare REITs with a favorable view of seniors managed housing and outpatient medical. We are more cautious on the life science space. The combination of age demographics, wealth and affluence, and limited supply across all the senior living spectrum today offer what appears to be nearly a decade ahead of above-average rent growth, improving occupancy, the ability to grow margin, and a substantial ability to take market share.

Semi-annual media usage trends survey
The shift from traditional linear TV to streaming remains the driving force behind many industry trends, though the pace of cord cutting continues to be gradual. Cord shaving remains significantly more common than outright cancellation, supporting our view that traditional pay-TV and streaming can coexist for some time, particularly as sports, news, and broadcast content remain important drivers of retention.

Canadian telecommunications: Old dogs, new tricks, and Starlink
The Canadian telecommunications industry is navigating a period of many changes — some structural, some less so, but all still impactful. Following recent consolidation events, wireless competition has intensified with the establishment of a credible fourth national carrier. On the wireline side, the regulatory agencies with an increasingly pro-consumer mandate, have explicitly targeted pricing affordability and competitive intensity as primary objectives. These structural changes are coinciding with a deteriorating macroeconomic environment and a deceleration in aggregate population growth driven by federal revisions to immigration targets.

Quarterly valuation check and return analysis: Gauging sentiment and buyside expectations
A collaboration between the airline and strategy teams, this report reviews valuation, sentiment, positioning, and the price-implied buy-side earnings bar as consensus estimates revise ahead of earnings season over the coming weeks. We attempt to identify stocks that are likely to outperform/underperform based on a mix of sentiment-related factors reviewed (vs. fundamental).